Pakistan Economy Dashboard

This week (2 Nov–6 Nov): The KSE-100 jumped 4.49% to 173,886.69 as a mid‑week broad rally pushed the index to its weekly and monthly highs before a late pullback. Leadership was concentrated: Cement (+10.81%) and Fertiliser (+5.06%) were the strongest sectors, with Commercial Banks and Power also rising. Brent crude slid sharply, closing the week at $98.51 (-13.15%), while the US dollar traded almost flat at PKR 276.57 (+0.05%). Gold climbed strongly to PKR 362,053 (+4.48%). Refinery names bucked the market, registering a deep average decline of 12.18%.

This month: The market hit the month high in the mid‑week session (4 Nov) as cyclical, construction‑linked and bank names extended gains reported in daily briefs. Cement and fertilizer repeatedly appear as top performers in TFD’s daily coverage. Official levels at the end of October show the SBP policy rate at 12.00% and retail petrol and diesel prices at PKR 376.06 and PKR 398.07 per litre respectively — energy price levels that remain a background constraint for consumer and manufacturing costs.

Longer picture: The move was accompanied by FX stability — the rupee was steady around PKR 276.4–276.6 — and a steep fall in Brent, which in principle relieves some imported‑inflation and working‑capital pressure for importers and transport users. Yet the simultaneous rally in equities and a strong rise in gold points to mixed flows: risk appetite in cyclical equities alongside safe‑haven buying in bullion. Refinery weakness occurred despite the fall in Brent, suggesting idiosyncratic or stock‑specific selling rather than a clear macro trigger in the week.

What to watch next: Direction in Brent crude, FX stability around PKR 276–277, and any SBP signals on rates (policy rate 12.00% as of 28 Oct) will matter for margins across oil, refinery and interest‑sensitive sectors. Monitor petrol/diesel price levels, gold flows and company‑specific news for refiners and the large banks that led mid‑week gains.

This week (1–6 Nov): The KSE-100 climbed to 173,886.69, a weekly gain of 7,477.43 points or 4.49%, with the index peaking at 175,379.87 before a late pullback. Strength was concentrated: Cement (+10.81% average), Fertilizer (+5.06%) and Commercial Banks (+4.39%) led, while Refinery names weakened sharply (average −12.18%). The biggest single-day lift came on 4 Nov (up 2.38%). External prices moved decisively — Brent slid 12.93% to USD 98.76 and gold rose 4.50% to PKR 362,417 per 10 grams, while the rupee was effectively flat against the dollar (week change −0.04%).

This month (period 1–6 Nov): The market’s early‑November advance was driven by construction‑linked and industrial names; daily briefs repeatedly noted that no single news item clearly explained the broad rally. Banks participated in the upswing, helping push the benchmark higher. At the same time, refiners underperformed across the week despite lower Brent — a divergence between oil markets and refinery stock moves that market notes flagged without a clear trigger.

Context and economic links: Policy remains unchanged — SBP policy rate is 12% — so gains are a sentiment‑driven re‑rating rather than the result of lower official borrowing costs. Falling Brent reduces the import bill and eases external pressures, which is typically supportive for banks and the broader market; it also tends to help industrial input costs. Gold’s strong rise often signals external safe‑haven demand or currency stress, but with USD/PKR steady the move appears externally driven rather than by a domestic FX shock. Petrol and diesel official levels are unchanged as of 28 Oct.

What to watch: Whether the Brent correction holds and how refinery stocks react to inventory and margin updates; any change in SBP policy rate or guidance; sustained rupee moves that would re‑rate exporters and importers differently; and whether gold’s jump persists — a sustained rise would point to renewed risk aversion even as equities have rallied.